The Lions got out of jail in the first test last Saturday, sneaking victory thanks to a host of missed kicks from Australia, most tellingly from Kurtley Beale in the final minute. However, the final result masked what was an average team performance (dotted with impressive individual displays from the likes of North, Sexton and Tom Youngs) and had the hosts not been decimated by injuries in the backline, they would surely have won.

Both teams are likely to make a number of changes for the second test in Melbourne, some enforced, some tactical. The big news of the week revolved around the teams’ respective second row leaders. Horwill controversially escaped a ban for a stamp, while O’Connell has been ruled out of the remaining matches by an arm injury. The Munsterman is huge loss for the tourists and while Parling is an excellent operator, he does not have the same influence of the former captain. Corbisiero is another injury worry which resulted in a surprise call-up for Tom Court. Should the prop miss out he will be another loss and the Lions’ perceived advantage in the scrum may be forfeited, especially if Kepu gets the nod from Deans. Remarkably the Lions would be down to their fourth choice loose-head.

Better news for the Lions concerns Roberts, Tuilagi and Bowe, all of whom are in contention for Saturday. If fit, expect Roberts and Bowe to replace Davies and Cuthbert, which would see Gatland’s first choice backline take the field for the first time. If that backline is to produce however, the tourists need Phillips to perform far better than last week, when he was comprehensively outplayed by the magical Genia. Youngs and Murray can count themselves unlucky not to displace the Welshman.

The Wallabies are without Barnes, McCabe and Ioane, who received an arrest warrant on Monday, while Ashley-Cooper has made a remarkable recovery from a shoulder injury. Beale should come in at full-back, or perhaps at 10 with O’Connor moving wider in a backline reshuffle, while Cummins is likely to take Ioane’s place. Lealifano is also expected to recover and I would expect the centre to take over the crucial kicking duties. George Smith has returned to the Aussie squad and the legendary flanker may come straight into the matchday 23.

Once again the breakdown will be key and referee Joubert will hopefully be kinder to the Lions, and O’Driscoll in particular, than Chris Pollock. Australia won the physical contest in the first test and there are calls for the inclusion of O’Brien in place of Croft to help in this area, but it seems unlikely that Gatland will start the Leinsterman. His early substitution on Tuesday hints that he may take a place on the bench though. Meanwhile, Lydiate tackled brilliantly and also pressed his claims for a starting spot.

Australia will tear into the Lions on Saturday and it is hard to see the visitors withstanding the onslaught, especially given that the hosts now have a match under their belts. The Wallaby goalkicking cannot be that wasteful again and I expect the hosts to level the series in Melbourne, especially if O’Connor is not the out-half.

Verdict: Australia